da bwin： Roy Hodgson isn’t exactly a popular figure on Merseyside and this is justifiably so according to a multitude of Liverpool fans. They find themselves with an uninspiring football style that witnesses players looking dejected and the belief that transfers will rectify this predicament with the backing of the new ownership in the New England Sport Ventures. But if Liverpool fans have observed the NESV at work in baseball then there is a slightly more shrewd policy implemented to gain success against money wielding clubs. What I’d like to assess is whether Hodgson is the correct man for this policy?
da betcris： The Red Sox, with a financial structure that limited their capability to compete with the big spenders had to find another mode to attain success. This came in the guise of using statistical models which allowed unbiased, clear and precise determinations made on players purely based on their efficiency. With this model they could acquire value in the market by unearthing talent that had been missed due to certain circumstances and profit from the short-sightedness of their rivals. This punctilious approach will now be enacted at Liverpool to try and curb the financial outlay on transfers whilst remaining competitive.
The difference between impersonal statistics and the appreciation of the human condition presents itself here. With the statistics being stared at with cold, calm and calculating eyes by the NESV, it has evidence behind it for the faith given it, but this is in baseball and not football. Football involves far more technical and physical ability in a general sense as opposed to the specificities of pitching and batting which can be monitored fairly consistently. With these statistics there is no room for the appreciation or empathising of the human temperament, numbers don’t forgive failure they merely accentuate it.
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If a player performs poorly, the stats won’t lie and will highlight it, but they won’t necessarily explain why a player hasn’t performed well. The majority of players will have a foundational base of skill sets, but it is the psychological constitution of a player that establishes whether or not they can cope with pressure, expectation, failure, excessive rewards and the other aspects you have to manage in order to be successful. Statistics wouldn’t absolve failure in view of these excuses and a forgiving hand may only be extended if conscious of the entire picture.
Regardless of my thoughts on the mathematical formulas that could come to determine the transfer policy at Liverpool, is Hodgson the right man to see it through? He has found quality in unearthing players such as Brede Hangeland and revitalised the careers of players that had seemingly run along a plateau for some time in the likes of Danny Murphy, Bobby Zamora, Paul Konchesky and Zoltan Gera. This presents the value in the market that NESV are striving for, but would those same statistics have given the aforementioned players the chance to progress and realise their potential under suitable guidance from Hodgson? It would appear that they wouldn’t because with these types of player you take a risk, which is why value is gained when you accomplish the potential you saw in them.
Statistical formulas such as Pro Zone are supposed to remove as much risk as possible and eliminate human error, for we are a fallible lot, but without risk we lose the initiative and route to success. But then is this system taking a risk in itself? I think Hodgson would appreciate the assistance of such a system, but in a game that is so complex and emotionally invested as football the intuitive elements shouldn’t take a back seat to the stats. Hodgson after all would pick the team, train them, impose his style of play (does baseball have such a diverse difference in approaches as football?) and be responsible for the results. He is the right man given time, but so are you on Football Manager with the statistics at hand.
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